The Market is Never Wrong

Fear and Greed are the two emotions that have been a detriment to mankind.   It is written about again and again.  Yet it still exists.  And even if you control it today, it will lurk it's ugly head again perhaps tomorrow, like those pesky ants that just keep on popping up.  Mosquitos that never seem to stop breeding.

Fear and Greed are alive and well and producing spawn time and time again.   All you can do is keep your emotions in check.  Fight the temptation.  Like on a Friday when your Forex Account has a big fat positive balance.  And you have this urge to trade again.  Out of fear that you will miss out.  Out of greed because you want more.  And out of ego because you have been "right" so many times already this week.

Don't do it.   Just stay away.  Once you go negative then Fear will feed on you.   It can mess with your psychology.  Create doubt.  The fear will grow.  Your natural defense mechanism will kick in and you will want to fight the good fight.  You're right. The market is wrong.  Guess what.

The Market is NEVER Wrong!

Do yourself a favor and just sit out some trades.  It's better to be right and watch then to enter and be wrong.   Already in a bad trade?  Be honest with yourself.  Suck it up.  It's better to stop out now then to weather a loss 5 or 10 times of your current loss.   Do your trend analysis.  Analyze just how bad the situation is.  Go to a smaller time frame and look for exit and entry points.  Maybe stop out and reverse your trade.  Or just wait until the next entry point.    Just know that the market is right. You are wrong.  And if you're in the plus that means like the force, "The Market is With You".

 



Yep, I'd ride my Motorbike here

Only a few months ago I visited Bangkok for the first time and was in awe of the traffic. 

I thought to myself, no way do I ever want to drive here.  Not in a car and definitely not on a motorbike.

A few months later I'm driving a car in Phuket.  Not long after that I'm riding a motorbike and zipping in and out of traffic, passing cars, getting from point a to b in less time than a car without the need to find or pay for parking.  Sure it gets a little hot or wet at times but overall it's a great way to commute and enjoy Thailand.

Now that I'm back in Bangkok again I feel confident I can ride my motorbike here. I'd even prefer it over walking those awkward sidewalks, cramped streets, and fighting off panhandlers.  
Funny how ones perspective changes.  Equally interesting is how one adjusts to the big city in a flash.
Day Trading is quite similar.  It's like riding a bike, once you get back on, you are quickly peddling like it was your first bike.  And all that experience riding your bike, or day trading, comes in handy as it guides you. 

Then there comes that day where you take out your bike and you face a new challenge or you figure out a new trail, or you upgrade to a motorbike and one day take on Bangkok.   In trading you have your comfort zone, you have a system or strategy that you know that works. And as you get more experienced, you start riding that traffic like you ride those waves in Hawaii, like a champ.  You might even figure out some new tricks, some new strategies and systems.

All in all, the Forex Market is exciting.  It's an experience.  It's always changing and yet it's as it has always been.  A good platform, broker, system, and strategy are not enough.  Experience is key.   A great way to get insight on the Forex Market is to sit down with a pro, someone that has been trading the Forex Market for many years and can share their experience.   Just an hour with an expert can be as powerful as a few years on your own.   If you don't have one, I recommend you take on a Forex Coach.    For more information have a look at my Day Trading Course.

Forex Review

On Saturday I met with my latest student, Panya.  He flew in from Bangkok to meet me and we had good long conversation about the Forex Market.

One of his questions had to do with Forex Reviews.  You know, those ever so insightful Market Reviews that tell you why the Euro slid against the US Dollar or what to expect from currencies in the upcoming week.

Simply put, all those websites, articles, and newsletters with the latest Forex Analysis are like the Weather Forecast.  No matter what the weather report says, it's more often wrong.  

Take Phuket Weather, when I came here in July, the forecast called for Rain and Thunderstorms pretty much every day of the week.   Meanwhile it was sunny and hot...

Alot of Forex Forecasts are just like weather forecasts.   You know, go long above this level, short below here, bias is sell if....    Hit and Miss.   More often wrong than right.

And as for Forex Market Commentary after the fact?  It's alot of "I told you so".  Anyone can analyze the market AFTER it has moved and give you a million reasons why.   They make it look easy.  That's because it is easy to offer expert opinion after the fact.     Don't get me wrong, there are occasional interesting articles, perspectives, and insights on a market move.  Just like the weather report occasionally is right.

What's not easy is having a sense of the market, direction, and more important trade opportunities.  That gets to be a little trickier but with the right approach, strategy, and know-how, you can do quite well at Forex.